Mesothelioma deaths continue to fall – what the latest HSE Figures tell us

The Health and Safety Executive's (HSE) latest mesothelioma statistics provide cautious encouragement for insurers managing long-tail asbestos liabilities. The figures show that 2,146 people died from mesothelioma in Great Britain during 2024, a reduction of 109 deaths compared with 2023 and significantly below the average of 2,508 deaths per year recorded between 2011 and 2020. The HSE expects annual deaths to continue declining over the next decade as the legacy of historical asbestos exposure gradually diminishes.

While mesothelioma remains one of the most significant occupational disease exposures facing the insurance industry, the latest data reinforces a trend that has been emerging for several years: the market is moving beyond the peak of the asbestos epidemic.

A long-term downward trend

Mesothelioma is almost exclusively linked to asbestos exposure, often occurring decades after the initial contact with asbestos fibres. Many of today's cases arise from workplace exposures that occurred before the 1990s, when asbestos was still widely used across construction, shipbuilding, engineering, manufacturing and other industrial sectors.

The latest figure of 2,146 deaths represents a substantial reduction compared with historic levels. The ten-year average between 2011 and 2020 stood at 2,508 deaths annually.

For insurers, this decline is significant because mortality data has traditionally been a useful indicator of future mesothelioma claim volumes. Although claims and deaths do not move in perfect alignment, both are driven by the same underlying exposure patterns and latency periods.

Implications for claims trends

The most obvious implication for insurers is the likelihood of a continuing decline in mesothelioma claims over the medium to long term. Most insurers, reinsurers and legacy liability carriers have already been operating on the assumption that mesothelioma incidence has peaked. The latest HSE figures provide further evidence that this trend remains intact.

However, any reduction is likely to be gradual rather than dramatic. Given the long latency period—often 30 to 60 years between exposure and diagnosis claims will continue to emerge for many years.

While volumes may decline, severity remains largely unchanged. Mesothelioma claims continue to attract substantial compensation awards because the disease is invariably fatal and often progresses rapidly following diagnosis. Consequently, even a declining number of claims can continue to generate significant indemnity exposure for employers' liability insurers.

For insurers with historic employers' liability books, asbestos remains a major reserving issue despite the downward trend. Many policies written decades ago continue to respond to claims arising today. Tracing historic insurers, reconstructing policy histories and allocating liability remain key challenges in mesothelioma litigation. Consequently, run-off portfolios and legacy liability books are likely to remain active long after annual mortality figures have begun to decline.

One notable trend is that the occupational profile of mesothelioma claimants has broadened over time.

Historically, claims were concentrated among workers in heavy industry, shipyards and asbestos manufacturing. More recent cases increasingly involve construction workers, electricians, plumbers, carpenters and public sector workers, including teachers and local authority employees. This reflects the widespread use of asbestos-containing materials within buildings constructed during the post-war period.

For insurers, this means exposure continues to extend beyond traditionally hazardous industries. Claims may emerge from sectors that were not historically viewed as presenting significant asbestos risks.

Emerging risks remain

The decline in mesothelioma claims does not signal the end of occupational disease exposure. As traditional asbestos liabilities slowly reduce, insurers are increasingly focused on emerging disease risks, including silica dust exposure, welding fumes, diesel exhaust particulates, PFAS and other chemical exposures, and occupational cancers linked to new technologies and materials.

There is also the potential for new claims arising from alleged exposure to asbestos in talc, makeup, toys and play sand. It will be interesting to see how this develops in the UK given developments in the USA.

Many insurers are already applying lessons learned from decades of asbestos litigation when assessing these emerging risks, particularly around causation evidence, latency periods and aggregation issues.

Outlook

The latest HSE statistics confirm that mesothelioma mortality continues its gradual decline. The HSE expects this downward trajectory to continue during the coming years.

For insurers, the message is one of cautious optimism. The UK asbestos occupational epidemic is slowly receding, supporting expectations of declining claim volumes over time. However, mesothelioma remains a significant source of severe, high-value employers' liability claims, and legacy asbestos exposures will continue to shape reserving, claims handling and reinsurance strategies for many years to come.

The trend may be downward, but asbestos has not yet become a historical issue. Instead, it remains a long-tail liability that is entering a new phase, characterised by falling volumes, persistent severity and a gradual transition towards the occupational disease risks of the future.